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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."